Wilson-to-Sutton Broncos touchdown had only a 3.2% completion probability

When Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson eluded would-be sackers on a fourth down in the first half of Monday night’s game and threw a high pass into the area of the endzone against Buffalo, the football looked like it was headed way out of bounds. But toe-dragging specialist Courtland Sutton had a plan.

The wide receiver stretched out to snatch the ball and he just barely got his feet in bounds. Touchdown.

Denver Broncos v Buffalo Bills
Courtland Sutton of the Denver Broncos catches a pass for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on Monday in Orchard Park, New York.

Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images

“He has great hands in traffic. We didn’t have a good angle on it, but good play by him,” said head coach Sean Payton.

It turns out it was one of the least likely touchdown passes in recent NFL history. An analysis by Next Gen stats shows the play had only a 3.2% completion probability.

“Coach gave us enough confidence to go for it on fourth-and-2. We drove all the way down there, kind of get outside the pocket, kind of do a little double spin, and Courtland’s sitting right in the corner. I mean, unbelievable toe-tap catch,” said Russell Wilson. “Guys are making plays and we’re doing it together. That’s what matters most.”

It was one of a number of plays, many of them backbreaking shovel passes, by Wilson that befuddled the Bills on Monday Night Football.

Wilson’s rebound is helping the Broncos (4-5) as they ride their first three-game winning streak since starting out 2021 with a 3-0 record.

Although they’re not in the playoff hunt just yet, they’re trending that way after a 1-5 start had their frustrated fans eyeing this year’s college stars and next year’s draft more than the NFL postseason, which the Broncos haven’t been a part of since the Peyton Manning era.

Source: Rocky Mountain News

 3 total views,  1 views today